Global trade analysis: Aluminium and Steel

Cadence Economics recently assisted the Anti-Dumping Commission with analysis of Asian steel and aluminium markets and CGE modelling of the economic impacts of dumping and subsidisation on the Australian steel and aluminium industries.

The work undertaken draws on our two key strengths: policy analysis and economic modelling.

For the underlying policy analysis, we assessed the impact of Government influence on the steel and aluminium markets, with a particular focus on China, Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia. We identified the various measures applied by Governments that have a distortionary impact on market behaviour, explaining how they impacted on market behaviour (including identifying any interactions between measures), and commented on their significance.

The economic modelling undertaken considered a range of scenarios to estimate the economic impacts of dumping and subsidisation on the Australian steel and aluminium industries. We provided a detailed explanation of the methodology and assumptions used in the modelling, the scenarios tested, and the results. Using our in-house CGE model we produced estimates of the consequential impacts on production for selected upstream and downstream industries as well as broader economy-wide effects (measured by changes in gross domestic product (GDP), gross national product (GNP), employment and investment).

For further information and to download a copy of the report, please refer to the report on the Anti-Dumping Commission website

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